Comparison of Some 2014 and 2010 Votes in Leisure World of Maryland and MoCo

All those who watch politics are looking for explanations of what happened in the surprise vote for Maryland Governor 2 days ago. Can it be explained by voter turnout?

Just to use one area as a test case, I compared the votes in Leisure World of Maryland in the gubernatorial elections of 2010 and 2014, for Maryland Governor, Comptroller, State Senator in District 19, and Montgomery County Executive.

The total votes were down from 2010 compared with 2014, by 6-8%. However the percent of votes received by the Democratic and Republican candidates for Maryland Comptroller, State Senator and County Executive were almost exactly the same in both years.

The voting for Governor was a completely different story. The percentages for the Democratic and Republican candidates in 2010 was 68% vs. 32%. The percentages in 2014 were 60% vs. 40%.

This made me wonder if the Leisure World results were unique or if the same pattern might show up in all of MoCo and District 19.

The total votes were down from 2010 compared with 2014, by 15-16% (Leisure World almost always has better voter turnout than MoCo). And the percent of votes received by the Democratic and Republican candidates for Maryland Comptroller, State Senator, and County Executive were exactly the same in both years in District 19 and MoCo, just as with the Leisure World pattern.

The voting for Governor was a different story. The percentages for the Democratic and Republican candidates in MoCo in 2010 was in  69% vs. 31%. The percentages in 2014 were 63% vs. 37%.

Conclusion: It appears that although the voter turnout in 2014 was lower than in 2010, the percentage of votes received by Democratic vs. Republican candidates in at least three races, statewide, countywide, and Leisure World, stayed the same. That is, all had fewer votes but in about the same proportion. The only race that was significantly different in terms of one party's candidate having a much lower percent of the votes, was the Governor's race, and that was true countywide and in Leisure World.